On October 23rd, the leading recruitment service Persol Group’s thinktank, the Persol Research Institute, along with Chuo University, published the results of their joint research about the labor market, titled “Estimates for the Labor Market in 2030.”
According to the research, Japan will face a labor shortage of an estimated 6.44 million people by 2030. The research predicts that the labor shortage will become more severe over time; before 2030, there will be a shortage of 3.84 million by 2020, and that number will increase to 5.05 million by 2025.
The results were broken down into different categories. Looking at the results by industry, the service sector will face the most severe labor shortage at 4 million people. The medical and welfare industry is just behind that at 1.87 million. Broken down by profession, the research results state that specialist and technological occupations will face a shortage of 2.12 million people. Finally, a breakdown of prefectures in Japan shows that Tokyo will face a shortage of 1.33 million workers.
The research report suggests as a countermeasure the hiring of more women, seniors, and foreign workers, along with productivity increases from using AI and other technological innovations. These can fill the 6.44 million shortage of workers – women can make up 1.02 million, seniors 1.63 million, foreigners 810 thousand, and AI and other technological innovations the remaining 2.98 million.
The report also suggests that if wages do not increase, the government and private sector should cooperate to increase wages so that the labor shortage does not become worse. Though the research does not take into account skill gap, it still proposes that workers should learn skills in demand from companies.
Hopes are being pinned on foreign workers to help with the labor shortage problem.
Currently, the Japanese government is debating establishing new requirements for staying in Japan as of April next year. However, it’s also clear from these research results that the needs of long-term foreign workers of Japan are increasing.
For foreigners who want to work in Japan, there will be increased opportunities to work in various industries and professions.
［Reference］Future Estimates for the Labor Market – 2030
［Reference］The Results of Joint Research by Persol Research Institute and Chuo University – Estimated Labor Shortage in 2030 is 6.44 million. Prospects for Labor Shortage to Become More Severe